From the Desk of the CEO: September 2025

At the Crossroads: Food Export Through the Eyes of the Optimist and the Cynic

Our industry stands at a pivotal crossroads in the global food export landscape. About a year ago, I used Grant Wood’s “American Gothic” to talk about holding the tension between tradition and transformation found in American agriculture. Today, I return to that idea, this time through the tension between the optimist and the cynic inside all of us.

Too often we hedge our outlook with phrases like “cautiously optimistic” or “just playing devil’s advocate.” We must hold both lenses fully. At times we must lean into opportunity with confidence, and at other times we must confront challenges directly. The task is not to soften one view with the other, but to weigh them both clearly.

I will focus on three forces shaping our current landscape: the U.S. dollar, trade policy and tariffs, and the rise of processed food exports. Each carries opportunity and risk, and both views matter.

The U.S. Dollar

Signal: The dollar surged to multi-decade highs in 2022 and 2023, contributing to a slowdown in U.S. export growth. In fact, the U.S. Dollar Index hit 114.8 in October 2022 — its highest value in 20 years. Since early 2025, however, the dollar has lost steam. It has fallen roughly 5-12% against major currencies (a decline of about 10% overall), giving U.S. exporters some relief as the euro, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian real all strengthened against the greenback.

Optimist’s View: A softer dollar is a tailwind for exports. It makes U.S. products more affordable overseas and has already helped offset some tariff costs. If the trend continues, demand for American commodities and food products could strengthen, narrowing the trade gap. Many exporters feel relief that after years of headwinds, exchange rates are finally moving in their favor.

Cynic’s View: Relief comes with caveats. A weaker dollar raises the cost of imported inputs such as fertilizer, fuel, and equipment. The strong-dollar years also did lasting damage, driving buyers to cheaper suppliers who may not return. A few months of decline will not erase lost contracts, and currency trends can reverse quickly if investors seek safety. Competitiveness will ultimately depend on efficiency and innovation, not exchange rates.

One takeaway: Seize the openings, but always prepare for the swings.

Trade Policy and Tariffs

Signal: “Emergency” tariffs now affect billions in trade, cutting into everyone’s bottom line. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review the legality of these sweeping tariffs this fall, after a lower court ruled that the President overstepped authority by using emergency powers to impose broad duties. At the same time, the farm sector heads into harvest 2025 under a cloud of retaliatory barriers from China and others. Tariffs remain in effect during the legal fight — pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to an extraordinary 16.3% — and American importers paid about $30 billion in tariffs in a single month (August 2025), over four times the amount from a year earlier. The pressure is on all sides.

Optimist’s View: There are signs that trade impasses can be resolved. A Supreme Court review could restore checks and balances and create more stable rules. Harvest season creates urgency, forcing leaders to act as grain piles up. Many tariffs were always described as temporary leverage to bring partners to the table. Recent breakthroughs, such as the U.S.-UK deal that lowered barriers for beef and ethanol, show that diplomacy can work. Optimists believe we are in the hard bargaining phase before new agreements deliver more predictable access.

Cynic’s View: On the ground, exporters are paying punishing costs. Tariffs function as a heavy tax that makes U.S. goods uncompetitive. Soybean growers report essentially zero sales to China this season as buyers turn to Brazil. What could be a bad year risks becoming a generational loss of market share, jeopardizing 40 years of relationship-building. Every month major markets remain closed is a month competitors deepen their foothold and invest in infrastructure. Without resolution, today’s disputes could lock U.S. agriculture into a weaker position for decades.

One takeaway: Breakthroughs (or at least stabilization) must come soon, or many losses will become permanent.

Processed Food Exports

Signal: Consumer-oriented, high-value products now account for nearly half of U.S. agricultural export value. In particular, processed food exports have climbed steadily — reaching about one-third of total export value in 2024, up from 28% just two years earlier. (While bulk commodity exports slumped by $17 billion from 2022 to 2023 amid fierce global competition, value-added food exports have been a clear bright spot, even growing ~4% in 2024.) This elevated share is holding close to steady so far in 2025, underscoring how important processed and consumer-branded foods have become to the U.S. export mix.

Optimist’s View: Processed and value-added food exports are a bright spot and a model for the future. They fetch higher prices, show resilience even during turbulence, and contribute a significant share of farm income. Each box of retail-ready food exported also represents American jobs in processing, packaging, and marketing. U.S. products carry a reputation for quality and safety, and as middle classes grow in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America, demand for branded, trustworthy food products is increasing. From small businesses selling sauces to major firms exporting prepared meals, U.S. suppliers are well positioned to lead.

Cynic’s View: Growth in this sector is promising but fragile. Competition is intensifying, and local or regional brands often enjoy consumer loyalty. Exporters must navigate regulations, food safety standards, and non-tariff barriers. Higher-value products are also more vulnerable to boycotts, labeling campaigns, or political disputes that target U.S. goods. While processed foods hold value better than commodities, they still depend on a healthy global economy and reliable logistics. A slowdown, a supply chain disruption, or a trade dispute could quickly sap momentum.

One takeaway: Winning in processed exports will come down to brand strength and supply chain resilience

Conclusion

Like the farmer in “American Gothic,” our role is to face forward and see the crossroads clearly. The optimist and the cynic both have their place, and leadership means holding on to the tension they present. If we can do that, we can navigate volatility, push for stronger trade, and accentuate our strengths. That is how our industry will not only endure, but thrive in the years ahead.

Brendan Wilson 

CEO, Food Export-Midwest & Food Export-Northeast

Your Input Matters: If there is a topic you wish for me to discuss in this space, let me know. You can reach me at info@foodexport.org. Just put Attn: Brendan Wilson in the subject line.