Going Through It: Uncertainty for Food Export, Uncertainty for U.S. Businesses
Dear Food Export Community,
On November 12, Congress passed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in history. For Food Export, which is funded through the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service on a reimbursement basis, this meant using our reserves to continue operations while we waited, day by day, for a resolution.
We’re proud of how we held steady. Our educational services remained online. Trade events and Buyers Missions moved forward as scheduled. Our cost-share reimbursement program continued through a rush of claims, with only a few large reimbursements temporarily paused. Those should be disbursed soon. We worked through it.
But the truth is, this wasn’t a one-time event. It is the operating environment now. DOGE reviews. Farm Bill expirations. Shutdowns that last longer each time. These are no longer one-off disruptions. They have become structural features of our business landscape.
And while none of us would choose this level of uncertainty, it has helped us relate more directly to the businesses we serve—small companies navigating risk and complexity every single day. They don’t wait for certainty. They ask the same questions we have been asking ourselves. Can we commit to this? How much risk is too much? Is it smart to move forward now?
And like them, we weigh the risk. Weigh trade offs. We remember that inaction is a decision. Then we keep going.
Maybe that’s why a particular bedtime story has been on my mind.
I’ve been reading We’re Going on a Bear Hunt to my kids almost every night. not suggesting it belongs in an MBA curriculum, though I know a few guys in finance who could use some levity. Like a lot of kids’ books, it starts to worm its way into your brain after the millionth time through.
They start each section with cheerful determination:
We’re going on a bear hunt.
We’re going to catch a big one.
What a beautiful day.
We’re not scared.
Each obstacle—grass, river, mud, forest, snowstorm—comes with the same line:
We can’t go over it.
We can’t go under it.
We’ve got to go through it.
There is something useful in that. There is no perfect moment. No ideal conditions. Only the next step.
This year has brought a steady run of imperfect conditions.
Yes, tariffs have been front and center. But they have contributed to other risks, and they have not been the only story.
These forces are real, and they are shaping how U.S. food businesses operate.
What is impressive is how steadily many of them continue to move forward.
And the tools they use are not dramatic. They are consistent. Diversifying options. Building in buffers. Communicating early. Planning for lag time. Forming strong partnerships. Making decisions with incomplete information and adjusting course when needed, without handwringing.
It’s a good playbook. And it happens to be the same one we have used. Just like we worked through it, so have the food exporters we serve.
Processed food exports from the U.S. are currently tracking about 2 percent ahead of last year’s pace. That may soften. Some of the increase likely reflects front-loading due to tariff uncertainty and inventory stockpiling. But it is still a signal of momentum. No handwringing. Just progress.
Our job is to make that progress a little more possible.
We prepare for uncertainty so the businesses we serve don’t have to carry the full weight of it. We scenario plan. We monitor long-term funding patterns. We coordinate closely with our federal partners to ensure continuity. We manage our reserves with discipline. We invest in global in-market representation so companies can make decisions based on what is happening now, not what happened last quarter.
We also help exporters build their own resilience. Diversification is part of that. We support companies in almost every viable market for U.S. food, beverage, and ingredients. If Europe slows, there may be growth in Vietnam. If freight rates spike on one corridor, others might open. Resilience is not a slogan. It is the practical value of having options.
I love that my kids love a story with that message: you don’t wait for perfect conditions. You move forward anyway, often without a lot of choice. So it doesn’t hurt to develop a healthy relationship with the world of ambiguity and uncertainty.
That’s what we’re doing. And that’s what the businesses we serve are doing every day.
The conditions are not perfect. They rarely are.
What matters is how we prepare, how we partner, and how we support the companies building their future in global markets.
Brendan Wilson
CEO, Food Export-Midwest & Food Export-Northeast
Your Input Matters: If there is a topic you wish for me to discuss in this space, let me know. You can reach me at info@foodexport.org. Just put Attn: Brendan Wilson in the subject line.
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