As we close the book on 2025, I want to share a few reflections on what our export data is telling us. This past year brought major shifts in U.S. trade policy and a level of uncertainty we have not seen in decades. Yet through it all, U.S. food and agricultural exporters showed resilience.
Below are three data-driven observations that help frame what happened in 2025. They show how exports bent but did not break, why geography matters more than ever, and how processed food exports struggled at first but then began to recover.
One quick note at the outset: full-year 2025 export data is currently available only through October. Where necessary, figures reflect a reasonable annualized view based on that data.
In 2025, U.S. food and agriculture exporters weathered significant trade disruption. A key overseas buyer pulled back sharply, and global trade conditions shifted quickly. Even so, overall U.S. export performance remained historically strong.
We did not reach the record high set in 2022, but we came close. That alone is telling. It speaks to the underlying competitiveness of U.S. agriculture and the ability of exporters to adapt when conditions change.
To put 2025 in context, here is a look at total U.S. food and agricultural exports over recent years:
Even with the disruptions of 2025, exports are tracking near the top of the historical range and far above pre-pandemic levels. The system absorbed a major shock, adjusted, and kept moving. Our exports bent under pressure, but they did not break.
That resilience gives me confidence as we look ahead, even knowing that uncertainty is likely to remain a defining feature of global trade.
And “set it and forget it” exporting might be over
If there is one lesson exporters took away from 2025, it is that where we sell matters just as much as what we sell.
Long-standing trade relationships were tested this year and continue to be. Nowhere was this clearer than in China, which sharply reduced its purchases of U.S. food and agricultural products. At the same time, Canada and Mexico became even more central to the U.S. export picture, even as trade discussions with both partners remained active and, at times, contentious.
Looking at export shares rather than dollar values helps clarify what really changed. Here is how the distribution of U.S. food and ag exports shifted from 2022 to 2025:
China’s role declined dramatically, falling from nearly one-fifth of U.S. food and ag exports to about one-tenth. Canada and Mexico together now account for a larger share of U.S. exports than ever before. The European Union also held steady and grew modestly as a share.
The broader takeaway is not that trade collapsed or retreated inward. It reorganized. Exporters diversified. When one major market slowed, others absorbed more of the flow.
This is why “set it and forget it” exporting no longer works. Relying heavily on one market carries real risk. Successful exporting today requires active engagement, ongoing market development, and close attention to policy and regulatory conditions. Conversations around USMCA, for example, matter more now precisely because Canada and Mexico make up such a significant share of total exports (and so do conversations about our relationship with Europe, which have found themselves in the headlines this January).
What the data tells us is encouraging. Diversification broadly worked in 2025. Overall export values remained relatively stable even as individual markets shifted. That suggests these adjustments may prove durable, not temporary.
Trade disruption does not affect every part of the system equally. In 2025, consumer-oriented products felt the shock more acutely than bulk or intermediate products, at least initially.
Consumer-oriented products include the branded, high-value foods and beverages that sit closest to the consumer. These products are often more exposed to tariffs, regulatory friction, and sudden shifts in buyer sentiment. In the first half of 2025, many overseas buyers paused or delayed orders, and exports of consumer-oriented products declined noticeably.
Bulk commodities such as grains and oilseeds, along with intermediate products like feeds and oils, proved more stable. Some bulk categories even posted gains, with corn exports standing out as a bright spot.
The pattern becomes clearer when looking at year-over-year changes within 2025:
In the first half of the year, consumer-oriented exports were down sharply, while bulk and intermediate products saw only modest declines. By the second half of 2025, consumer-oriented exports had swung back into growth, and the other categories had also turned positive.
That shift matters. It shows that while processed food exports struggled to absorb the initial shock, the setback was temporary. As markets adjusted and buyers regained confidence, demand for U.S. meats, dairy products, and packaged foods resumed. Some product groups finished the year stronger than many expected.
The lesson is not that processed foods are fragile. It is that they respond differently to disruption, and often more quickly, once conditions stabilize.
Looking back at 2025, I am proud of the resilience shown by America’s food and agricultural exporters. We faced a serious test, and we came through it with confidence intact. The system bent under pressure, but it held.
As we move into 2026, uncertainty will continue to shape the global trade environment. At the same time, opportunity remains. Demand for U.S. food and agricultural products is strong, and exporters have shown they can adapt when conditions change.
At Food Export, we remain focused on our mission and committed to supporting exporters as they navigate this evolving landscape. That means helping companies diversify markets, understand shifting trade dynamics, and stay engaged where it matters most.
Thank you for your perseverance and adaptability in a challenging year. There is much to learn from 2025, and much to build on as we move forward together.
Sincerely,
Brendan Wilson
CEO, Food Export-Midwest & Food Export-Northeast
Your Input Matters: If there is a topic you wish for me to discuss in this space, let me know. You can reach me at info@foodexport.org. Just put Attn: Brendan Wilson in the subject line.